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what is prior probability and likelihood?
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You are about to get on a plane to Seattle, you want to know whether you have to bring an umbrella or not. You call three of your random friends and as each one of them if it's raining. The probability that your friend is telling the truth is 2/3 and the probability that they are playing a prank on you by lying is 1/3. If all 3 of them tell that it is raining, then what is the probability that it is actually raining in Seattle.
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